‘Dega a crap shoot, but there are some good plays (NASCAR.com)
April 21, 2010
Throwing darts at a dartboard is one effective way of picking fantasy drivers for Talladega.
Fantasy owners will wear their lucky quarters smooth this week while trying to set up their lineup for the Aaron’s 499.
In the best of circumstances, a race on the restrictor-plate superspeedways is a crap shoot as the whim of the draft can drop a driver from the lead to outside the top 20 in one circuit around the track. In the worst of circumstances, your entire roster can be wiped out in the “Big One” that has been known to eliminate as much half of the field at Talladega in a single incident.
Handicapping a race on the plate tracks has always been difficult, but NASCAR has made it virtually impossible with the introduction of a new rule this year that allows for up to three green-white-checkered finishes.
The new rule was put to the test immediately in the season-opening Daytona 500 on NASCAR’s other restrictor-plate superspeedway. That race featured three cautions in the final laps and two attempts at a green-white-checkered finish. The action got started when Elliott Sadler wiggled on Lap 193 of the scheduled 200 and collected Ryan Newman and Travis Kvapil. That set up the first extra inning restart and another caution immediately flew when Bill Elliott cut a tire and crashed with Joey Logano and Boris Said.
On the following restart, Jeff Gordon nudged Kasey Kahne into a spin that collected Robert Richardson. For good measure, there was even a final crash during the run to the checkers that involved both Jeff and Robby Gordon.
Racing is a zero sum game, however. There are as many gainers as losers and someone will be credited with first through fifth. On Lap 193 before the rash of cautions, the No. 24 was running comfortably in eighth. Jamie McMurray was immediately ahead of Gordon in seventh. With all of his trouble, Gordon finished 26th; McMurray slalomed through the field to win.
Picking a favorite at Talladega is virtually impossible. Once practically unstoppable at ‘Dega, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has earned only a single top-five in his past 10 starts there while drivers like Brad Keselowski, Marcos Ambrose and Scott Speed finished that well last year. Still, one of the factors you should consider each time the series rolls onto a plate track is the amount of time a driver spends in the lead pack. The theory is that the more time one spends with the leaders, the fewer drivers there are ahead of him to make a mistake—and the Pied Piper at Talladega continues to be Earnhardt. Despite relatively few top-fives, he’s spent nearly 52 percent of his time in the top 10 during the past three years and that will eventually pay big dividends like it did last spring when he finished second to Keselowski.
The result of this recent unpredictability is that only one driver enters the weekend with more than two consecutive Talladega top-10s. It’s not the plate king Earnhardt, it’s not four-time champ Johnson and it’s not one of the drivers with the most wins in the past two years—Kyle Busch. It’s Mr. Consistency, Jeff Burton. He’s been successful with an opposing strategy from Earnhardt’s. Burton likes to stay out of trouble for most of the afternoon and press the gas when it matters most. In terms of laps in the top 10 at Talladega, Burton ranks only 11th with 34 percent, but fantasy games pay points for finishing results and not raw strength.
The Favorites
Greg Biffle is one of only four drivers who swept the top 10 at Talladega last year and that fact probably comes as no surprise. The other two drivers who finished that well, however, might astonish you. Along with his victory in the spring, Keselowski finished eighth in the fall. Last year’s rookie of the year, Logano, finished ninth in the spring and was third in the fall. Other than Earnhardt with a second and 11th, no one else even came close to posting strong back-to-back runs. Each of these wheel men deserves attention, but the lack of consistency among all other drivers suggests the winning strategy this week will be to spread your money around equally among marquee names and dark horses.
Dark Horses
In many ways, the entire field could be classified as a dark horse. No one expected Bobby Labonte to finish 10th in the Amp Energy 500 last fall while racing for the lightly-funded Racer’s Group.
Before last fall’s Talladega race, no one was paying particular attention to McMurray either. He hadn’t scored a top-10 on a plate track in eight attempts, but he claimed the trophy that afternoon and enters the Aaron’s 499 with back-to-back victories on this track type. Biffle finished fourth at Talladega last fall and was third in the Daytona 500, but those are the only two drivers with back-to-back top-10s on plate tracks.
The upside is that plate tracks give you the opportunity to start some fresh faces. For all of his struggles on other tracks, Elliott Sadler has been very successful at Talladega and Daytona in recent years. He stumbled at Daytona this year after getting involved in a late-race incident, but four of his previous five efforts on this track type ended in top-10s.
David Ragan is another driver who has been largely overlooked this season but who should be considered this weekend. From the spring 2008 Talladega race through the 2009 Daytona 500, he logged four consecutive plate results of third through sixth. His last four attempts have not been nearly as strong with runs of 12th through 17th, but that still means he’s been able to stay out of trouble in eight consecutive races. A little luck and track position during the final run could make him this week’s best value.
Brian Vickers enters the weekend with four consecutive plate track top-15s and seven such finishes in his past nine races on this track type. He scored a controversial victory at Talladega in 2006, so he knows how to get to Victory Lane and Toyota makes enough horsepower to keep him in the lead pack.
Fantasy Power Ranking Restrictor-plate superspeedways (past three years) Pos.DriverPA* Pos.DriverPA* Pos.DriverPA* 1.Kyle Busch8.12 16.Elliott Sadler16.22 31.Johnny Sauter24.532.Dale Earnhardt Jr.9.67 17.Martin Truex Jr.16.49 32.Marcos Ambrose24.703.Denny Hamlin10.43 18.Clint Bowyer16.52 33.Bobby Labonte25.084.Jeff Gordon11.33 19.Ryan Newman17.21 34.David Gilliland25.445.Tony Stewart12.46 20.David Stremme17.78 35.Robby Gordon27.306.David Ragan13.02 21.Carl Edwards18.09 36.A.J. Allmendinger27.497.Jimmie Johnson13.11 22.Joey Logano18.13 37.Sam Hornish Jr.27.518.Kurt Busch13.60 23.Brad Keselowski19.48 38.Scott Speed27.629.Matt Kenseth14.00 24.Greg Biffle20.33 39.Regan Smith28.2510.Kevin Harvick14.57 25.Jamie McMurray20.35 40.Joe Nemechek28.3811.Brian Vickers15.34 26.Travis Kvapil20.41 41.Terry Cook28.7512.Juan Montoya15.51 27.David Reutimann22.71 42.Bill Elliott30.3113.Jeff Burton15.90 28.Reed Sorenson23.00 43.Michael McDowell31.9214.Kasey Kahne16.01 29.Paul Menard23.80 44.Max Papis34.6215.Mark Martin16.08 30.Dave Blaney24.46 45.Mike Bliss38.82
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