Fantasy Preview: At Atlanta, trust the numbers to set a lineup (NASCAR.com)
September 1, 2010
Last week, NASCAR fans saw a lot of fresh faces in the Nationwide and Truck series races. In part, that was because the cars ran on the road course in Montreal and the trucks were part of an ARCA doubleheader at Chicagoland.
With the exception of drivers making a full-time bid for the Nationwide crown and Kyle Busch—who can’t miss a single weekend of racing—most of the Cup regulars took last weekend off to relax and prepare for the 12-week stint that closes out the NASCAR season.
A handful of drivers on either side of 12th in the points’ standings have only one goal during the next two weeks and that is to qualify for the Chase for the Sprint Cup. They need to race conservatively but still manage to secure solid top-10 finishes. The top 11 drivers in the standings who are not in danger of falling out of Chase contention have a different agenda; winning is the only thing on their mind in order to secure the 10 bonus points that will give them an edge during the playoffs.
Of course, winners can come from anywhere in the field. Only half of the top 12 in points have won races, which should come as no surprise with Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin taking five victories each, but what is a little more shocking is that four winners from the first 24 races of 2010 are not currently in playoff contention, including Jamie McMurray who won the two biggest races of the season when he crossed under the checkers first in the Daytona 500 and the Brickyard 400.
The similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks have been just as unpredictable with victories going to Hamlin, Kurt Busch, and David Reutimann. Hamlin is a flat track master with historically uneven results on cookie-cutters; Busch struggled on this track type last year, and after finishing 40th at Atlanta Motor Speedway and 37th at Texas Motor Speedway earlier in the season, few fantasy owners were prepared for how strong Reutimann was at Chicagoland Speedway. Be prepared for another surprise or two in this week’s Emory Healthcare 500, but put most of your faith in the numbers, because the cream continuously rises to the top.
Kasey Kahne has had a few ups and downs in recent weeks, but that hasn’t seemed to affect him on the cookie-cutter tracks. During the past two years, he’s been practically perfect with a 19th and 33rd at Texas last year as his only two results outside the top 15. He won the Pep Boys Auto 500 at Atlanta in 2009 to more than make up for that deficit and while he failed to win back-to-back races on this track in the spring, he probably had the strongest car after spending 321 of the 341 laps inside the top five. With only one top-five finish in his past five weeks of this year, he’s liable to get overlooked by your competition and that could allow you to make up some ground in the points.
While Kahne may have had the stronger car overall during this spring’s Kobalt Tools 500, it’s not exactly as if Kurt Busch backed into Victory Lane. He spent 279 of 341 laps inside the top five, which was the second most during the afternoon, and that kept him in position to earn his third victory on this track. In fact, he’s won two of the past three attempts at Atlanta and even though both of those came during the spring, he also knows how to run strong in the fall with a win in the 2002 edition of this race. Busch has been hit-and-miss at Atlanta in recent seasons, but if he runs strong in practice, he can’t be overlooked this weekend after winning three of the past six races on similar 1.5-mile tracks.
It’s time to go out on a limb once more and make Juan Montoya a favorite. It seems like he struggles every time fantasy owners relax and place him on their roster, like they did at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and Pocono Raceway, but winning the road race at Watkins Glen International restored his confidence and he’s finished seventh in the past two oval races. Placing him on your roster won’t come without a little stress, however. Montoya has finished in the 30s in five of his past seven cookie-cutter races, but Atlanta has been kind to him at least. On this lightning fast track, he enters the weekend with back-to-back third-place finishes.
Dark Horses
From last year’s NASCAR Banking 500 at Charlotte Motor Speedway through this spring’s Kobalt Tools 500 at Atlanta. Matt Kenseth rattled off four consecutive top-five finishes on similar 1.5-mile tracks. He failed to win, but came close twice with second-place finishes. His past three efforts on this track type have produced only one top-10 and two top-15s, but that is why he is considered a dark horse instead of a favorite. Looking at his Atlanta record alone, he would be more highly regarded with six top-fives and a worst finish of only 13th in his past five attempts. One of his recent runner-up finishes came at Atlanta this spring, and if he can duplicate that effort, he will be well worth starting.
Car owner Richard Petty might not be overly impressed with A.J. Allmendinger’s consistency in recent races, but fantasy owners aren’t complaining. Expectations were low enough at the start of the season and that same inconsistency that concerns Petty has insured that his salary cap is affordable—and yet he’s still able to offer a lot of bang for the fantasy buck. A best result of sixth on the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks might not get enough attention from rank and file media, but dating back to last year’s race at Texas, he’s finished in the top 15 in all but a single race on the cookie-cutter tracks and that makes him one of the best values in the game.
Underdogs
The Favorites
At first glance, it may seem odd to make Kevin Harvick an underdog this week, but there are a couple of reasons why he might not be an automatic pick for your roster. First, he’s already clinched his playoff berth and even though he and the team say they are not going to change the way they are approaching races, they seemed to experiment a little last week at Bristol Motor Speedway and the result was a finish outside the top 10. Secondly, he’s been trending the wrong direction on the cookie-cutter tracks. Last year at Texas and this year at Las Vegas Motor Speedway he earned top-fives, which slipped to top-10s at Atlanta this spring and during the first 2010 Texas race. He was 11th at Charlotte and had one of his worst finishes of the year at Chicagoland when he struggled from start to finish in the LifeLock.com 400.
If he can avoid getting into an accident like he did at Texas this spring, Paul Menard could be the most pleasant surprise of the weekend. He’s already laid claim to that distinction at Atlanta earlier this year with a remarkable fifth that came partly as a result of pit strategy at the end of the race, and was partly attributed to the fact that he spent more than a quarter of the afternoon racing with the top 10. To prove that result was not a fluke, he went to Charlotte and finished eighth and then added one more top-10 at Chicagoland. He hasn’t earned another top-10 since, but then again, the Cup Series hasn’t been back to one of the doglegged 1.5-milers either.
Fantasy Power Ranking Intermediate tracks (past three years) Pos.DriverPA* Pos.DriverPA* Pos.DriverPA* 1.Jeff Gordon8.43 16.Mark Martin16.23 31.Reed Sorenson29.262.Jimmie Johnson8.72 17.Jamie McMurray18.96 32.David Gilliland29.623.Kyle Busch9.19 18.David Reutimann19.15 33.Sam Hornish Jr.29.794.Greg Biffle11.24 19.Ryan Newman19.60 34.Todd Bodine29.905.Tony Stewart11.54 20.Juan Montoya20.49 35.Scott Speed30.876.Matt Kenseth11.60 21.Brad Keselowski22.83 36.J.J. Yeley32.207.Carl Edwards12.53 22.Joey Logano23.66 37.Robby Gordon32.978.Denny Hamlin12.65 23.David Ragan23.95 38.Travis Kvapil33.709.Kurt Busch12.82 24.Casey Mears25.29 39.Regan Smith34.4610.Kasey Kahne13.21 25.A.J. Allmendinger25.83 40.Tony Raines34.9311.Dale Earnhardt Jr.13.94 26.Paul Menard27.40 41.Jeff Green36.2812.Jeff Burton14.69 27.Marcos Ambrose28.20 42.Mike Bliss37.2013.Martin Truex Jr.15.32 28.Bobby Labonte28.41 43.Brian Keselowski38.6014.Clint Bowyer15.63 29.Elliott Sadler28.41 44.Joe Nemechek38.7915.Kevin Harvick15.66 30.Scott Riggs29.07 45.Michael McDowell39.16
