Fantasy Preview: Chase all set makes RIR fantasy strategy tough (NASCAR.com)
September 8, 2010
In the Atlanta race last week, both Jamie McMurray and Mark Martin had modest results, finishing 15th and 21st respectively, while Clint Bowyer, who currently sits 12th in the points standings, finished seventh. That virtually eliminates all of the drama surrounding who makes the Chase, but Tony Stewart’s victory proved there is still a lot at stake in the final regular season race of the season.
At Atlanta, Stewart earned his first Cup victory in his past 32 starts and with that win came 10 valuable bonus points that will help in his bid to become the 2010 Cup Series champion, but he actually got much more than that. As teams that were comfortable with their spot in the playoffs began to experiment in recent weeks, they triggered a loss of momentum and a spate of bad luck for several drivers.
Meanwhile, Stewart is charging forward at precisely the right time. Since finishing third at Pocono, Stewart has amassed 10 top-10 finishes in 12 starts and that is the best record in the field. If the Chase were to start this weekend, Stewart would give up a 40-point advantage to Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin, but each of those drivers only have one top-10 in the past four weeks.
If not for the momentum he brings to Richmond, Stewart would not be a favorite this week. His past two performances on this track have been less than stellar with a 17th-place finish in the 2009 edition of this race and a 23rd in this spring’s event. Worse still, he was never in contention in the first race of this season and he spent less than 15 laps inside the top 15. Prior to then, however, he logged four consecutive Richmond top-fives that included three runner-up results. He could cut Johnson and Hamlin’s advantage to only 20 points this week and that could make him the favorite to challenge the No. 48 team.
Momentum is fickle. Jeff Gordon’s team seems to be one of those organizations that changed the way they approached races once it was obvious they would make the Chase. Following a string of five consecutive top-five finishes from Michigan through Chicagoland, they apparently started swinging for the fences in an effort to earn a victory, snap his long winless streak, and earn bonus points for the Chase. Not only has he failed to record another top-five in the past six weeks, he has only two top-10s to his credit. But he has one more opportunity to reverse his fortunes. Gordon had the dominant car this spring in Richmond. In that race, he drove past Jeff Burton for the lead on Lap 251 and except for a handful of circuits while he made a green flag pit stop, he held the advantage until Lap 394. Late-race restarts have been his undoing this year and he slid to second behind Kyle Busch in the closing laps, but he still earned major points for fantasy owners.
At Atlanta, Kevin Harvick admitted he was trying too hard entering the pits when he flat spotted his tires and failed to clear the commitment cone. On the next lap, one of his tires exploded, which tore his left front fender off and eventually sidelined him with a vibration. He didn’t get the points’ lead by making very many mistakes this year, however, and he’s been nearly perfect at Richmond since the start of the 2005 season. In those 11 races, he failed to clear the top 10 only once when he experienced trouble in the spring race last year and finished 34th. He has a victory in fall 2006, however, and his third-place finish this spring gives him a great set of notes from which to work.
Dark Horses
The top 12 in points have been unpredictable and no one seems to want to separate themselves from the crowd. Stewart has been the strongest during the past 12 races, but he’s starting to get some competition from Carl Edwards, who has now finished 12th or better in eight consecutive races. In fact, all but one of those events ended in the top seven. You cannot consider him a favorite on this track, however, because his Richmond record is anemic overall with only four top-10s in 12 career starts. One of those strong runs came this spring, however, when he finished fifth.
Kyle Busch is another driver with conflicting statistics. His record at Richmond during his career has been absolutely stellar with two victories and nine top-five finishes in 11 attempts. Both victories came in his past three starts, which means he has figured this place out and the only thing that keeps him from being a hands’ down favorite this week is his up-and-down record during the past 11 races of the 2010 season. Since the first Michigan race, he’s finished outside the top 10 more often than he’s been inside that mark. The good news, however, is that his past two efforts ended in a victory at Bristol and a fifth last week at Atlanta.
Underdogs
The Favorites
Last week’s underdog Paul Menard almost paid off big when he appeared to have a car that was not only capable of finishing in the top 10, it was stout enough to earn a top-five. A blown engine sent him to the showers early and highlighted the dangers of starting sleepers. This spring in Richmond’s first race, that same lesson was underscored by Sam Hornish Jr. Last year, he was stellar on this short track that has been traditionally kind to former open wheel drivers when he finished sixth and eighth. This spring, he scraped the wall early and crashed hard late, but if he can avoid trouble this week, he could be a pleasant surprise.
Too little, too late? It may be too late, but fantasy owners can expect that Mark Martin will do his best to insure that it’s not too little. Richmond has been one of his best tracks during the past couple of seasons with sweeps of the top five in his part-time season of 2008 and his first stint with Hendrick Motorsports in 2009. Unfortunately, that was not enough to keep him error free this spring when he lost a lap pitting during green flag conditions early in the race and was nabbed for speeding on pit road during another cycle of stops near the end of the event. Martin is not prone to mental lapses of that type, however, so he should be able to end the regular season with a solid run—regrettably, it will be too late to make up enough points on Bowyer and climb into the top 12 in the point standings. But fantasy owners could capitalize on the major points he’ll earn.
Fantasy Power Ranking Short tracks (past three years) Pos.DriverPA* Pos.DriverPA* Pos.DriverPA* 1.Jeff Gordon6.31 17.David Reutimann17.74 32.Travis Kvapil30.632.Denny Hamlin7.57 18.Jamie McMurray17.99 33.Sam Hornish Jr.30.763.Kyle Busch8.68 19.Greg Biffle18.68 34.Regan Smith31.354.Jimmie Johnson8.78 20.Brad Keselowski18.92 35.David Gilliland31.415.Mark Martin10.70 21.Matt Kenseth19.42 36.Todd Bodine32.816.Tony Stewart11.23 22.Marcos Ambrose19.51 37.Scott Speed32.887.Clint Bowyer11.39 23.Kasey Kahne20.53 38.Patrick Carpentier32.968.Ryan Newman12.18 24.Joey Logano23.07 39.Bill Elliott33.659.Kevin Harvick12.27 25.Casey Mears24.29 40.Michael McDowell34.2310.Carl Edwards13.05 26.David Ragan25.50 41.Mike Bliss34.3411.Dale Earnhardt Jr.13.13 27.Reed Sorenson26.99 42.Dave Blaney34.6912.Jeff Burton13.23 28.A.J. Allmendinger28.41 43.Scott Riggs34.7813.Jason Leffler15.33 29.Paul Menard29.56 44.Landon Cassill36.4414.Kurt Busch16.36 30.Elliott Sadler29.65 45.Joe Nemechek40.0215.Martin Truex Jr.16.75 31.Bobby Labonte29.88 46.Kevin Conway40.0316.Juan Montoya16.87
