Harvick, Bowyer in good standing heading to AMS (NASCAR.com)
March 4, 2010
A look at the top five drivers and five to watch in Sunday’s Kobalt Tools 500 (1 p.m. ET on FOX). Four of the drivers to watch this week made the Chase in 2009 but are off to slow starts. All statistical references are for Sprint Cup races at unless otherwise indicated. Driver Rating is based on the past 10 races at the track.
Top five
1. Kevin Harvick, 82.4 Driver Rating. Harvick has finished second the past two weeks and also finished second in his most recent trip to Atlanta in September (to Kasey Kahne). Harvick’s lone win in 18 Cup races at Atlanta came in his first start at the track in 2001, which was his third Cup race.
2. Clint Bowyer, 83.8. Based on his eight starts at Atlanta, Bowyer either will finish sixth or in the 20s. His four top-10s are all sixth-place finishes, including last March. His other four finishes are 27th, 25th, 20th and 29th. The way he’s driving right now, look for another sixth.
3. Mark Martin, 88.2. Martin has two wins and 14 top-fives in 48 starts. His 23 top-10s are tied with Jeff Gordon for most among active drivers. His past seven starts at the track are spotty, though, with as many DNFs as top-10s (two). And his average finish in those races is 24.1.
4. Matt Kenseth, 95.4. Kenseth is one of four drivers with top-10s in the first three races of the season (along with Harvick, Bowyer and Greg Biffle). Last year he finished 12th in both Atlanta races, ending a streak of five top-10s (four in the top five) at the track. Overall, he has 11 top-10s in 20 starts, so he has the history to keep his current top-10 streak alive.
5. Greg Biffle, 95.0. Biffle crashed in this race last year and finished 34th. But he bounced back in the second race at Atlanta with his eighth top-10 in 14 starts. He is winless at AMS, but eight of his 14 career Cup wins are on intermediate tracks.
Five to watch
6. Jimmie Johnson, 110.1. Despite finishing 36th this past September, Johnson still has the best average finish among active drivers (10.7). That’s because in 17 starts, he has three wins among his nine top-fives (11 top-10s). The winner the past two weeks, Johnson should be strong again.
21. Denny Hamlin, 93.2. Hamlin has yet to register a top-10 finish this year and may not get one Sunday—he doesn’t exactly burn up the Atlanta track in the March races. His three top-10s in nine starts all have come in the fall race, including last year.
23. Kasey Kahne, 88.8. Kahne has one top-10 this year, which came after finishes of 30th and 34th. He has two wins and seven top-10s in 12 starts at Atlanta. In those other five races, however, he has four finishes 33rd or worse. Another one of those races is exactly what he doesn’t need right now.
27. Juan Montoya, 81.7. Montoya has followed up a 10th at Daytona with consecutive 37th-place finishes. If he can keep from tangling with teammate Jamie McMurray, Montoya has the ability to run well at Atlanta. He finished third in September for his second top-five in six starts.
32. Ryan Newman, 71.2. Sounds crazy, but right now Newman needs to be more concerned with staying in the top 35 in points after five races than concentrating on making the Chase. Newman is winless in 16 starts with five top-10s but four of those came in his first five starts. He finally got another in September.
• Two drivers have posted DNFs in all three races in 2010: Michael McDowell and Joe Nemechek.• Terry Cook and Casey Mears both failed to qualify in each of the first three races of 2010.• Denny Hamlin’s best finish in 2010: 17th at Daytona• Ryan Newman’s best finish in 2010: 18th at Las Vegas• Marcos Ambrose has not scored a top-10 finish in his past 15 races, since Bristol 2009 (third)• Sam Hornish Jr. has not scored a top-10 finish in his past 13 races, since Richmond 2009 (eighth)• Michael Waltrip leads all active drivers, competing in 48 races at Atlanta, but has never won there.• Joe Nemechek competed in 32 races at Atlanta but never won.• Jeff Burton competed in 31 races at Atlanta but never won.• Elliott Sadler has competed in 22 races at Atlanta but never scored a top-five finish. He has finished 14th or worse in his past eight starts there.Not Who’s Hot / Who’s Not Hot • Jimmie Johnson posted his 49th career Cup victory with his win at Las Vegas. He has 15 victories on 1.5-mile tracks, most of any driver. • Jimmie Johnson has won six of the past 12 races (since Dover 2009).• Four drivers scored top-10 finishes in first three races in 2010: Greg Biffle (third, 10th and 10th, Clint Bowyer (fourth, eighth and eighth), Kevin Harvick (seventh, second and second) and Matt Kenseth (eighth, seventh and fifth)• Three drivers scored two top-five finishes in the first three races: Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick and Mark Martin.• Five drivers have led in all three races in 2010: Clint Bowyer, Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick and Scott Speed.• Kyle Busch and Jeff Burton have scored nine consecutive top-15 finishes, since Charlotte 2009.• Clint Bowyer and Greg Biffle have scored seven consecutive top-15 finishes, since Talladega 2009.• Jeff Gordon leads all drivers with 59 top-five and 80 top-10 finishes in 129 races on 1.5-mile tracks, on which he has led 3,005 laps, the most by any active driver.• Jimmie Johnson has the best starting and finishing averages among active drivers on 1.5-mile tracks.• Mark Martin is third in points. At this time last year, he was 34th.
