In the Loop: Marquee names oddly quiet as Chase looms (NASCAR.com)
September 1, 2010
Two of the biggest names in the sport, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr., have suddenly become afterthoughts.
How is that possible? The answer: Performance.
Take Johnson, the four-time defending Sprint Cup Series champion. It has been an up-and-down campaign for Johnson. His five wins are tied for the series high with Denny Hamlin, yet his nine finishes outside the top 20 are the most in his nine-year career.
The brunt of Johnson’s struggles have come recently. Over the past seven races, Johnson has had five finishes outside the top 20 and two outside the top 30. His average finish was 23.3 during the “slump.”
But there are two reasons for optimism.
One, poor finishes aren’t always what they seem. In each of his past seven races, Johnson has had a better average running position than his finish. For instance, two weeks ago at Bristol,
Johnson finished 35th, but had an average running position of 17.4 and a Driver Rating of 92.0.
Second, Johnson heads to Atlanta, one of his best tracks. His average Driver Rating at Atlanta of 109.5 makes it his 10th-best track in terms of the Loop Data statistic.
Johnson at AtlantaDateStartFinishLaps LedOct. 200512th16th0March 200614th6th0Oct. 2006ThirdSecond27March 2007ThirdWon135Oct. 2007SixthWon8March 200811th13th0Oct. 2008FirstSecond28March 2009SeventhNinth11Sept. 2009Third36th17March 201016th12th0Past 10 races
Since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, Johnson has scored a Driver Rating over 100.0 in eight of 11 Atlanta races. His average finish over that period is 9.1 and his average running position is 7.8. Though he has finished outside the top 10 in the past two Atlanta events, he has finished first or second five times in the past 11.
Then there’s the curious case of Earnhardt, seven times voted NASCAR’s most popular driver.
Since consecutive top 10s at New Hampshire and Daytona, Earnhardt has struggled. In the past six races, he has finished outside the top 20 four times and has an average finish of 22.5. His Driver Rating over those six events was 66.3 and his average running position was 20.7.
But, like Johnson, Earnhardt should rebound this weekend. Atlanta is Earnhardt’s second-best track in terms of Driver Rating (98.7). He scored a rating over 100.0 four times in the past 11 races, and over 90.0 seven times. He won there in 2004, prior to the inception of Loop Data.
Earnhardt at AtlantaDateStartFinishLaps LedOct. 200517thFourth142March 200626thThird0Oct. 2006SixthThird95March 200722nd14th0Oct. 2007Fifth25th0March 2008SecondThird62Oct. 2008Ninth11th1March 200920th11th0Sept. 200931st17th0March 20101st15th0Past 10 races
