Making the Chase a matter of simple formula to follow (NASCAR.com)
March 9, 2010
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has 475 points after four races, which projects to 3,087 after 26 races.
Want to guarantee yourself a spot in the Chase for Sprint Cup? It’s as easy as 1-2-3—as in averaging 123 points per race.
Dustin Long of Landmark Newspapers wrote an interesting piece earlier this season where crew chief Brian Pattie suggested that an average finish of 14th was good enough to make the Chase. Not including bonuses for leading laps, that would work out to 121 points per race, or a total of 3,146 points.
That caused me to pull out the record books and do some calculating of my own. Pattie’s figure would have been good enough for every season under the Chase format except for 2009, when both Kyle Busch (3,195) and Matt Kenseth (3,165) exceeded that figure and still missed the Chase field.
Averaging 123 points for a 26-race schedule would result in a total of 3,198. And since NASCAR went to the Chase format in its premier series following the 2003 season, no driver who has amassed at least 3,200 points after 26 races has failed to be among the top 12 in the standings after Richmond. That includes Tony Stewart, who missed the 2006 Chase despite accumulating 3,303 points in 26 races, before the Chase field was expanded to 12 drivers.
After four races, drivers attempting to stay above the “123 line” would need to have at least 492 points after Atlanta, and 10 drivers currently meet that requirement. Compare that to the 13 drivers who were ahead of the average after Las Vegas, including Joey Logano, Carl Edwards, Busch and Jeff Gordon. On the other hand, with his fifth-place run at Atlanta, Paul Menard moved himself above the 123 line for the time being.
After four races, Scott Speed and Gordon are 10 points shy of the magic number, while Dale Earnhardt Jr. (-17), Logano (-21), Busch (-24) and Brian Vickers (-26) are next closest. With finishes of ninth and fourth in his past two starts, Kasey Kahne’s now averaging 111.75 points per race. However, Jamie McMurray (34th and 29th in the same races) and Edwards (12th and 39th) are going the wrong way.
That’s not to say that a total of less than 3,200 points won’t be good enough for a place in the Chase. In fact, Busch and Kenseth have proven to be the exception rather than the rule. In 2008, the cutoff was 3,047 points—with Kenseth and Clint Bowyer making the Chase field with point totals less than 3,200. In 2007, Earnhardt’s 13th-place total of 2,954 was easily exceeded by Bowyer (3,179), Kurt Busch and Martin Truex Jr. (3,160), and Kevin Harvick (3,155).
You have to go back to the first season under the Chase format—2003—to find drivers with at least 3,100 points who missed the postseason. Even using the current 12-driver format, Bobby Labonte (3,137), Harvick (3,129) and Dale Jarrett (3,100) would have found themselves on the outside looking in.
Interestingly enough, the trend of season-long points racing seems to be the primary cause for steadily increasing totals. In the past four seasons before the Chase format was instituted, no driver 13th or better in the standings had as many as 3,000 points after 26 races. By 2005, it would have taken 2,972 points to make a 12-driver Chase field. A year later, that figure was up to 3,039. And after two seasons where the range was in the 3,100s, Vickers needed nearly all of his 3,203 points to grab the 12th and final spot in the 2009 Chase.
Will averaging 123 points a race be good enough to make the Chase in 2010? We’ll know for sure after Richmond.
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