Road Ramblings: Dawn of Chase a time to review, preview (NASCAR.com)
September 9, 2010
Predictions, anticipation, expectations and disappointment are all part of the Chase for the Sprint Cup.
So on the eve of the cutoff race to set the 12-man field for the seventh annual Chase, Saturday night’s Air Guard 400 at Richmond International Raceway, it’s only appropriate to set the table with 12 predictions, of sorts, for the remainder of the season.
1. I know, I know—I’ve been saying for weeks Kevin Harvick’s the favorite to take this year’s Cup championship, and I haven’t backed off that. But before you forget about four-time running Jimmie Johnson, all you have to do is look at last weekend at Atlanta, where he finished third.
That’s the kind of stuff Johnson, crew chief Chad Knaus and their Hendrick Motorsports crew have made famous the past four years—while winning championships—and every other year Johnson’s been in Cup, when he prepared for what they’re currently executing.
So sit back and enjoy it, it’s gonna be a show.
2. Those of little faith will look at Harvick’s 33rd-place finish—which wasn’t even a finish; he DNF’d for the first time this season—and say it’s a sign of an ultimate flaw or weakness. Bah, humbug says I. It was nothing more than a simple, yet critical for that night, mistake trying to come to one of the most difficult pit roads to get onto on the circuit.
Before that mistake, Harvick was showing every sign of notching up just what he’s done for the better part of the season: a very workable top-10 finish at a track where he’s not been the greatest, overall, since his stunning Cup Series victory in 2001.
Of course, how crew chief Gil Martin keeps the No. 29 team in line this weekend at Richmond goes a long way in determining how they’ll start the Chase, which could be critical.
3. Carl Edwards really looked to be struggling earlier this season—and his finishes reflected that. How ironic that his malaise might have reached its rock-bottom point at Atlanta in the spring, when he attacked Brad Keselowski for an earlier mistake that Edwards himself initiated.
But since then, Edwards has kept his head up and in the game, and the entire Roush Fenway organization has concentrated, in conjunction with the Roush Yates Engines facility, at doing all it can to put RFR in position to contend for the 2010 championship. And if both Edwards and teammate Greg Biffle’s recent performances prove anything, it’s succeeded. And complaining aside, Matt Kenseth has remained right there, on the verge of a minor adjustment paying big dividends in the results column.
Bottom line, what it means is, if Edwards and crew chief Bob Osborne find the key to Victory Lane, they might get there two or three times in this Chase—and contend for the championship, or at least a top-three finish.
4. Tony Stewart—in fact, his whole Stewart-Haas organization—was a victim for most of this season of that “What happened to them?” syndrome after Stewart and Ryan Newman failed to equal their Chase-qualifying performance of their debut 2009 season. Unfortunately for Newman and crew chief Tony Gibson, they’ve never found the consistency to get into their second consecutive Chase, even though they won their first race together.
Stewart, on the other hand, has displayed the type of second-half performance he made famous while winning his previous two championships. While Stewart’s nowhere near on pace to equal the stellar numbers he put up last season—except in pole positions, where he’s won twice as many this season as he did in 2009, when he won none—he’s definitely in position to be considered more than a strong dark-horse threat to win this championship.
All you have to do is look at Stewart’s record in the past 15 races to know he is as well-positioned as anyone to seriously contend for this title.
5. It’s been a long time since we belabored the “Kyle Busch victory watch,” when Busch competed full time in 2009 in both Cup and Nationwide, while also running almost two-thirds of the Camping World Truck Series schedule for Billy Ballew Motorsports. Busch won 20 times while trying to establish a record for national series victories in a season, which he already holds at 21.
Can’t say his path to Victory Lane has been much quieter this year, but in case you missed it, Busch has accrued 17 victories to date across the three series, and there’s still almost a third of the schedule to go. All you have to do is look at last weekend, when Busch was fifth in the Cup race, second to popular winner Jamie McMurray in Nationwide and led the most laps at Kentucky before getting dialed out on fuel mileage in the Truck event.
My money’s on Busch getting it done this season, and establishing sole possession of the Busch/Nationwide season victory mark, which he currently shares at 10.
6. Brad Keselowski inevitably will score top-10 finishes in the Cup Series for Penske Racing—in fact, he’ll do a lot better than that, once he hits his stride. But that consistency is at least a season away which, I’ll say again, is when Keselowski should have been making his debut as a Penske full-time Cup driver, anyway.
But all the concentration right now is on Keselowski laying waste to the Nationwide Series, which is where it should be. Pay no attention to the fact Keselowski is running full time in both series. That shouldn’t take much away from the fact that he’s decimating the competition while in effect being a Nationwide driver.
Having said that, here are two bets for you to consider: 1) Keselowski will win twice in Nationwide before Kyle Busch wins his next single events in Cup, Nationwide and Trucks; and 2) Keselowski will also get his first top-10 finish for Penske this fall.
7. Denny Hamlin has almost literally fallen off the face of being a contender for the Cup championship, despite being in position to be the second seed for the Chase, based on the five wins he has this season. But the bad news is Hamlin and his Joe Gibbs Racing team hasn’t won since Michigan in June, and they’ve had a lack of even top-10 finishes since then, as well.
Richmond comes at a perfect time for Hamlin to regain his competitive footing, despite running as badly as he says they did there in the spring—which was just a normal decent finish for most teams, but sub-par to Hamlin’s expectations. But in order to be a factor in the Chase, Hamlin has to make something special happen, either at Richmond or in the Chase opener at New Hampshire, or else risk becoming irrelevant in this race.
With how much Richmond means to him and his record there, it’s an even-money bet Hamlin will win either the Cup or Nationwide race this weekend.
8. Terry Labonte and Billy Stavola back in a Cup Series garage should be a welcome sight to a lot of people who were either around the series when the pair was a fixture, or to those who ought to have an appreciation of the “purer days” of the sport. Labonte and Stavola seem to have gotten together to exploit and enjoy the competition, community and fellowship that exists in the Cup garage, even though it’s also a fiercely ruthless environment.
There’s no question it would have to take a compelling individual and an intriguing opportunity for Labonte to come out of his lengthy semi-retirement. Stavola certainly fits that bill, given his lengthy previous commitment to NASCAR in conjunction with his late brother, Mickey.
While Labonte probably will have to rely on his past champion’s status to get into the race, once he gets in it’s a good bet a top-30 finish will be very attainable, which would be a breath of fresh air for both men and close ally Richard Childress.
9. Kurt Busch seems to be the forgotten man in the run up to the Chase, and that could be a big mistake for anyone planning on winning this championship. The elder Busch has as many poles as any other Chase driver and is right near the top of the charts in all other statistical categories.
All you have to look at is the performance Busch and crew chief Steve Addington put together at Atlanta—with Busch’s late-race save after getting knocked to the apron one of the driving gems of this season—to know they have to be considered contenders.
It’s very likely that Busch could score his third win this season within the next four events and, if he does, there’s no way he’s denied a top-five championship run, at least.
10. After an up-and-down Cup debut at Infineon Raceway, all Swede Mattias Ekstrom wanted to talk about was his next opportunity in a stock car. With the German Touring Car series off until Sept. 19, Ekstrom’s next chance is now—or this weekend at Richmond—once again in Red Bull Racing’s No. 83 Toyota.
Ekstrom needs a breather as he sits only fifth in the DTM standings. He took a real body blow in the most recent round, at England’s Brands Hatch circuit, where Ekstrom completed only two laps and was 18th, last on the results sheet.
But Richmond may not be the place for a particularly positive experience, particularly for Ekstrom, who’s not used to being in a learning, uncompetitive role.
11. It’s inevitable, as the Chase gets under way, that talk will be about the 12 Chasers, almost to the exclusion of every other topic in the series. But it’s also inevitable a non-Chaser will win a race in the final 10—and maybe even this weekend at Richmond.
The responsibility for that falls directly to current Richard Petty Motorsports lead driver Kasey Kahne, and it’s just as inevitable he’ll deliver. Kahne and crew chief Kenny Francis have done a remarkable job of maintaining their competitive focus despite the fact of Kahne’s departure at season’s end was on the table.
Kahne’s level of performance at Atlanta, and his delightful execution of “frontier justice” on Ryan Newman, when Newman’s contact took him out of a shot for the win, proves Kahne’s turn in Victory Lane will come before the Chase is half done.
12. Speaking of Newman, did anyone else think he’s turned a more ruthless leaf, based on some actions at Atlanta? First, in the Nationwide race when rookie Trevor Bayne moved up the race track in front of Newman coming off Turn 2 and—easy to say from this seat—Newman just turned the kid around rather than breathe the throttle.
As for the Cup incident Sunday evening with Greg Biffle, that was a case of blindness on the part of Biff or his spotter. Newman had no choice but to hold his line on that one, when Biffle turned down on top of him. The incident with Kahne was more unfortunate for both Newman and Kahne—if it’s true that Kyle Busch actually drove Newman into Kahne, as Newman says happened.
The most impressive thing about Kahne’s immediate payback was Newman’s measured, philosophical handling of the aftermath, especially given it cost him more in his Chase prospects than did Newman’s earlier, dirtier spat with Joey Logano at Michigan.
The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.
