Track Smack: Richmond, the Chase and looking ahead to 2011 (NASCAR.com)
September 9, 2010
1. Saturday night brings the regular-season finale. Which driver who won’t make the Chase should be a contender in the playoff next year?David Caraviello: Lot of guys to choose from, but there’s a simple answer—Ryan Newman. He’s already bullied his way up to 13th, and he has a victory this season (albeit on fuel mileage) and he has Hendrick horsepower and all the same resources at his disposal that teammate Tony Stewart has. I’d be really, really surprised if Newman weren’t much higher in the points next season, given what he’s capable of.Raygan Swan: I have one driver in mind for this, and that is Kasey Kahne. Every year he is near or on the bubble, and going to Red Bull will improve his chances. Then again, it could be a disaster because Red Bull seemingly is a layover for Kahne until he reaches his dream job at Hendrick in 2012. I forgot about Newman, and man did he bully his way up there! He’s been doing a good job of that lately. Jamie McMurray would be my other pick. It’s sad that you win the two biggest races of the season and miss the Chase.
David Caraviello: Raygan, that’s three answers! And Rodman, are you trying to avoid the question? Although thanks for reminding me about Montoya, who was in the mix until the final few races last year, and has been besieged by bad luck and crashes this season. He’ll be up there next year, too, even if there are always some questions about whether Earnhardt-Ganassi can consistently hang with the big boys.
Dave Rodman: There you have the whole issue. Any one of those guys should be in, yet none of them are. I wish I could say I have ultimate confidence they’ll be in next year, but I can’t. That’s why we have to run the races and why this sport is pretty cool—and pretty unpredictable.
David Caraviello: I’ll be honest, the Kahne thing to me is no surprise. The guy’s been carrying Richard Petty Motorsports by himself, and it seemed only a matter of time before doing all the heavy lifting caught up with him. Next year, in a one-season stop with Red Bull, brings its own host of questions. Now, in 2012, when he’s in that No. 5 car, book him for the Chase. But we’re not talking about 2012 yet.
Raygan Swan: Of the drivers mentioned, I hope to see Montoya back the most, merely for his comments and personality. I see Kasey contending for a championship once he’s in the No. 5 car, but yes, we are not talking about 2012, but 2011. I think once Newman gets a strong sponsor and whatnot, he’ll be in the mix for sure. My pick would be Newman, officially.
David Caraviello: Goodness, I forgot about Newman’s unsettled sponsor situation. What’s with my forgetfulness this morning? Did I turn into Joe Menzer overnight? Last time I start drinking before 10 a.m.
Raygan Swan: Maybe you’re pregnant … no wait, that is Newman’s wife, who should be popping any day now. Then maybe his bullying will subside.
David Caraviello: Yeah, that guy’s been on a rampage lately. We should hold a weekly pool—who’s Ryan Newman going to get into with this week? Can I have A.J. Allmendinger for $200, Alex?
Dave Rodman: I didn’t really understand Ryan’s turn of events last weekend, but I can tell you one thing: Kasey Kahne’s version of “frontier justice” went over pretty well in this house. I didn’t really see Kyle Busch having anything to do with Newman dumping Kahne, but I’ll take his word for it.
David Caraviello: Dave, you’re not betting your house on this. Just take a stab. Gimme a name, somebody who’s out this year who could be in the mix next year. David Reutimann. Dale Earnhardt Jr. Paul Menard. Auggie Vidovich. There’s a whole host of good candidates to choose from. Let ‘er rip.
Raygan Swan: Yes! Auggie is David’s go-to guy only because he likes saying the dude’s name.
Dave Rodman: Mark Martin’s another one. no one could have forecast him and crew chief Alan Gustafson going in the tank this season. The most unfortunate thing is, you’d like to think they’d be back with a vengeance next season. But that’s a pretty thin limb to go out on. You wouldn’t have bet Dale Earnhardt Jr. would’ve stayed on a such a hiatus from the Chase, either.
David Caraviello: Dave, by its very nature this Chase is unpredictable. You have a small cadre of guys who are going to be in contention year after year, and a lot of moving pieces around them. There are a lot of candidates who will try and wedge their way back in next year. I’m surprised nobody has yet mentioned David Reutimann—cracking that Chase is the natural next step for him. Brian Vickers will be back. You probably have about 16 to 18 viable candidates for (we assume, for now) 12 spots.
Dave Rodman: I don’t understand. Every one of those guys is going to be “in the mix.” But are they going to be in? Why would I go that far? Jimmie Johnson is still a strong championship candidate once the 2010 Chase starts, but you go back a couple races, give him a couple more of the substandard finishes he’s had this summer, and all of a sudden he’s in Ryan Newman territory.
David Caraviello: It’s not a difficult question, Dave. Give us somebody who’s going to miss the Chase this year who could contend for the title next year. Very straightforward. Don’t tell me you were the kid in school who, when called on in class, gave a dissertation on the question rather than the answer.
Dave Rodman: A.J. Allmendinger. Case closed?
David Caraviello: There you go. Given Kasey’s departure, and given what you’d assume is A.J.’s progression to flagship driver for that organization, you’d think he’d have enough resources around him to at least make a run at it, as his soon-to-be-predecessor has. But that’s still a big step up for Allmendinger, and we’ll find out if he’s ready for it.
2. Next week, NASCAR gets down to the business of deciding a champion. Going in, who’s the favorite? Or is there one?
Raygan Swan: To me, contrary to what you wrote Sunday about Johnson, David, it is wide open. With RCR and Roush making major gains and Tony Stewart maybe peaking at the right time, this actually might be an exciting run this season. I know everyone thought Denny Hamlin might be the favorite, but that was months ago. Lots has happened. I don’t see a favorite.
David Caraviello: What did I write about Johnson? That they finally seemed to have things figured out as the Chase looms? That’s not exactly the same as saying he’s going to win it. I’ll be honest, I used to think there was a favorite … now it’s like seeing pick-up sticks on the ground. Grab one. Any one. We have like four or five guys who can legitimately lay claim to this now. They all have weaknesses. None of them stand out among the others.
Dave Rodman: Kevin Harvick has still not shown me anything that makes me think he’s not the favorite. Not a prohibitive favorite, mind you; but coming into Atlanta he was the only guy in the top-six of the standings without a DNF, which will be big in the Chase. But he also can’t make a mistake like he did trying to get on pit road last weekend.
David Caraviello: If you were in Las Vegas and you had to lay money on someone, Dave, I guess it would have to be him. But it’s all just such a jumble right now. Come next week, Harvick is going to be working with a deficit, and of course we all know just one regular-season winner has ever finished the job. Jimmie’s shown flashes, but what about the previous seven weeks? Can Denny Hamlin’s equipment hold up? Can Carl Edwards do this even though he hasn’t won a race? Can Kyle Busch be consistent enough through 10 events? Again, so many questions. All these guys blur into one another.
Raygan Swan: Yeah, mistakes just can’t happen once you’re in the Chase, and maybe drivers like Harvick and Hamlin have theirs out of the way, I don’t know. But I also look at Carl and he seems to be on an upward trend, which is why again there is no clear favorite. But if you’re forcing me to pick one, I’ll bet on Johnson. It’s the safest way to go. Chad Knaus won’t let me down.
Dave Rodman: I love Tony Stewart as a dark horse—if you can call a two-time champion a dark horse. If you look at his record the last, almost 15 races it’s just stunning. And Carl Edwards—if his team is truly stronger than it was in 2008—could scorch ‘em in the Chase. If he wins this championship, forget about a winless champion—he’ll have three wins at least.
David Caraviello: I don’t believe that mistakes “get out of the way.” I believe mistakes are indications of weak points that can bite drivers and teams later, when it matters most. A few months ago Denny Hamlin looked like he was about to take this by the throat—and now he’s 10th in points, dealing with pesky equipment issues (or more than pesky, like the engine failure at Atlanta) every week. Hamlin is 10th in points now. Had the Chase not been expanded, he’d be on the bubble. Unthinkable.
Raygan Swan: And we all know that is when Johnson heats up. The tracks in the Chase play to his advantage. Carl’s too, though. Maybe they don’t help Kyle Busch, though I’d like to see him get on a tear. Just to see the fans scream in outrage.
David Caraviello: Stewart has had only two finishes worse than ninth since the first Pocono race in early June, which is stout. Edwards hasn’t finished worse than 12th since July. Those guys are on a roll, but things step up another level in the Chase.
Dave Rodman: And that’s a level both Stewart and Edwards are very familiar with. And I’ll tell you this, there’s nothing I’d like better than to see Jeff Gordon go to Homestead with a chance to win this championship; but there seems to be one last—and not a little—hurdle they need to get over. If they get over it, could be lights-out for everyone, including JJ.
David Caraviello: You’re right, Dave, people tend to overlook Gordon, still lurking second in points. Still, if I had to rank contenders right now, it would probably be: 1. Harvick, 2. Edwards, 3. Johnson, 4. Gordon, 5. Busch, 6. Stewart, 7. Hamlin. But you could throw a hat over 3 through 7, and that order could be shuffled around next week. Or, an hour from now. Who knows.
Dave Rodman: I hope you are calling Kurt Busch in fifth. And as much as I’m liking Carl right now, there’s no way I’d drop Stewart that far, with the way he’s been running and coming off a win. In fact, I’d sat Tony’s a strong favorite to go into the Chase on a two-in-a-row roll.
David Caraviello: No, that’s Kyle. Kurt hasn’t had the best of summers.
Dave Rodman: True, but that display of driving that Kurt put on Sunday night proves why there’s only one Cup champion, to this point, in the Busch family.
3. Richmond has hosted the Cup Series “cut-off race” since the Chase was implemented. Is there another track that might be a more fitting host?
Raygan Swan: I don’t have enough institutional knowledge to say, so I will leave well enough alone. Richmond has been a great place in my opinion and I fear NASCAR, to make it more of a show, would pick a wild card track like Talladega or Bristol, and I don’t want that.
David Caraviello: Of all the things NASCAR has done with this playoff system, this might have turned out to be the most perfect. The whole scene at Richmond just seems to click with the craziness and unpredictability that NASCAR wants of its cut-off event. I cannot imagine any other venue being more fitting, although I am sure there are others out there that could do it very well.
Dave Rodman: No, no, no—Raygs, you’re right. Richmond is the right mix of driver, crew chief and pit crew all potentially having an impact. You’ve got that short track uncertainty, but with some good speed. I know the Chase only has a seven-year tradition, but this is one I hope they don’t mess with.
Dave Rodman: I don’t think I want to go there, before we even get into this Chase. My point: who would have predicted that Juan Montoya wouldn’t have even made this Chase? And for that matter, who would have thought that Kasey Kahne would be on the outs as well?David Caraviello: It does seem strange, though, that all this occurred by just happenstance. I mean, Richmond got very fortunate that NASCAR decided to start the Chase when it did, creating a 10-race playoff that left Richmond on the perfect spot on the calendar. Nobody really sat down and said, “you know, Richmond would be just right for the cut-off race.” It just worked out that way because of the schedule.Raygan Swan: I’ve only been to one Richmond race, 2007, and I think Johnson won. The atmosphere at that place is really cool. It seems to be packed with avid fans, and drivers seem to love the racing at Richmond. The rock-n-roll theme helps as well.
David Caraviello: I will say there would be some other places, like Charlotte or Phoenix, that could do a pretty good job of it if NASCAR ever chose to shuffle up the schedule even more. But Dave is right—Richmond is that perfect combination race track, just enough short track and just enough speedway. Big enough to generate fast speeds and small enough that strange things can happen sometimes. Why don’t we have more .75-mile tracks? RIR has more than proven the distance works.
Dave Rodman: I have two words that tell you why Richmond is perfect: Jeremy Mayfield. Maybe it was just circumstances that dictated Mayfield’s victory in the first Chase cutoff race, but that was an epic moment in the Chase’s history, and that type of win couldn’t happen at a lot of other venues.
David Caraviello: Raygan, going back to your earlier comment, I wouldn’t see Bristol as a wild card at all. Bristol isn’t nearly the fluky place that Talladega is. Had the schedule been a little different, Bristol would be a damn fine place to determine the Chase field. There’s just something about that short-track atmosphere that works so well on that night, a feather Richmond has in its cap as well. Shoot, I’d like to see them start the Chase in Bristol, and do the two short tracks back to back.
Raygan Swan: Yeah, I guess I was thinking of the old Bristol, so swap that with maybe Martinsville. If Indy could be switched to later on the schedule, that too could be a nice place because of the history and the track is so difficult. You don’t back into a win at Indy.
David Caraviello: Indy? Deciding the cutoff race? Are you saying that just because you could commute from home? Hey, I love Indianapolis. It’s one of my favorite tracks on the circuit. But the place doesn’t exactly produce the kind of action you want in a regular-season finale, with so many guys driving desperately. You don’t need 400 miles of single-file with Chase berths on the line. Although, maybe that’s what it would take to spice Indy up. Think they can string lights up around that place?
Dave Rodman: Raygs, that’s why I think Indy is in about the perfect slot on the schedule. You want that Chase cutoff race to have more possibilities for more people. But the fact is, it isn’t fair to put a whole lot of credence into one race as being a determinant of getting into the Chase. Every year, like Matt Kenseth last year and now, Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray this year, makes you understand getting into the Chase is a 26-race process, not a one-race wing and a prayer.
David Caraviello: Yeah, but you want that wing-and-a-prayer night to be fun. You want it to be wild. You want it to have that hint of unpredictability. Richmond gives you all that, which is why it’s just about perfect. You want a place where the drivers can race each other and not the race track. RIR does that.
Raygan Swan: Who knows, but yes, my commute to Indy would be great! And it wouldn’t be so freaking hot. Indianapolis in the fall is a beautiful place. Not sure Richmond has the same foliage.
David Caraviello: Indy is known for its foliage? Has Indiana been located somewhere east of Vermont? Shoot, then the place doesn’t need the cut-off race. I’m sure Raygan has the little one all bundled up for the Hoosier Foliage Festival this weekend!
The opinions expressed are solely those of the writers.
